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During the events of the last few days I have been amazed at how many comments have been made by people concerning their disappointment in not being able to vote Kevin Rudd out or Julia Gillard in. The other comment that has perhaps not surprised me as much is that people have felt that Julia Gillard has betrayed Kevin Rudd. Well I don’t really agree with either of these statements and I believe I have good reasons for this.

Whether you agree with me or not I would you encourage you to read on maybe you will see my point by the end maybe you won’t. Either way I would like to hear your thoughts so why not leave a comment.

Anyway onto my my opinion in regards to these statements.

Voting for the Prime Minister.

The simple fact is that in Australia we don’t vote for the Prime Minister. We never have and probably never will.
The way it works is people in an electorate vote for who they want as their local member. Now you can vote along party lines or for the person who you think will do the best jobs, that is up to you to decide. The party with the most people elected as local representatives will become the governing party and in effect the Government. At the moment this is the Labor Party. The members of this party get to decide who will be their Parliamentary Leader. This is usually done before the election. It is this Parliamentary Leader who is given the title of Prime Minister. The party gets to choose who this is and not the voting public.
So why have people gotten so up in arms about wanting to have the chance to vote for the who they want as Prime Minister instead of the party choosing. I don’t really know why they think this way but what I think they are really reacting to is the way the leadership spill happened. If people had have been asked whether they would prefer Kevin Rudd as the Prime Minister or Julia Gillard, I think they would have chosen Julia Gillard. Certainly polls this morning would seem to suggest this to be the case.

Today’s Newspoll, in which voters rate her as a better Prime Minister by 53 per cent to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s 29 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote has also jumped under Julia Gillard from 35 to 42 per cent while the Coalition remains unchanged at 40 per cent.
And in the two-party preferred results Labor now sits at 53 per cent to the Coalition’s 47 per cent.

I would suggest that the shock of the leadership spill is wearing off and people are starting realise that the sky is not falling even though they didn’t get to choose the Prime Minister themselves. Certainly voters seem to be warming to Julia Gillard.
So while we all play a part in voting for the Government, and some may cast their vote along party lines because they like the proposed Prime Minister that it will produce. We have no real ability to actually vote for the Prime Minister. I would actually say that people who vote along party lines are wasting their vote because if the candidate put up by the party you vote for is a complete idiot , why would you want them to be your local representative. Unfortunately this does seem to happen from time to time just take a look around at some of people in Parliament.

Betrayer: Julia or Kevin?

So who betrayed who, Julia or Kevin.
Now while the leadership spill was quick I don’t think you can really call it unexpected. Certainly media speculation had been rife in the weeks and months leading up to the spill The Labor Party was not doing well in the polls and Kevin Rudd didn’t seem to be doing anything to correct the situation. In fact it was his determination to keep carrying on with policies that didn’t make sense to popular thinking that was causing much of his downturn in the polls. The mining tax was a perfect example of this, standing stubbornly steadfast not willing to negotiate, this did not fare well with voters.

So where do I see Kevin’s betrayal.

Well it starts at the end of last year when the Government had a double dissolution trigger and the plan amongst senior Labor members was to use that trigger in the beginning of 2010. Well at this time was when Kevin’s childrens book came out and of course Kevin Rudd was feeling very chuffed with himself and couldn’t be bothered about any double dissolution. He was riding high, Labor was still doing well in the polls and he had so much else to do. Why should he call an election. Why indeed.

Well he should have called an election then because they had agreed to take such action. It would give them a mandate for the plans they already had. Aside from Labor already doing well in the polls they had a very good chance of wining a double dissolution election, history has shown us this.
Instead he put together his Kitchen Cabinet or Gang of Four, which did no end of damage to him amongst his own junior ministers especially. He introduced his mining profits tax and held his non negotiable position creating a feeling of uncertainty and fear that the Opposition was able to capitalise on.
Mostly Kevin Rudd was not the same “Kevin 07″ who had won them the election. Where was the all knowing, all caring man of the people. He had disappeared and in his place was a stubborn, dictatorial meany who yelled at people just because they bought him the wrong dinner.

All this was leading the Labor Party to a certain election loss and Kevin Rudd would not listen to his party members.
I am sure that Julia Gillard and others tried to talk to Kevin Rudd and bring things back on track with him at the helm but this didn’t make any difference.

So what choice did the Labor party have. To push ahead with Kevin as their leader and almost certainly loose the election or to take a chance and put someone in the Prime Ministers seat who could lead them to victory. They had to act and they had to act soon. Time was running out. Kevin Rudd had left them with no choice.
That is why I say that Julia Gillard did not betray Kevin Rudd. Quite the contrary, she had tried to keep him in the job, she was happy to keep going as Deputy Prime Minister, but it came to a point where she was out of alternatives and she was the best person to take on the Prime Ministers role. I am sure that despite her ambitions that this was not the way she would have liked to gain that position, not the way the first female Prime Minister was supposed to come into being.
So it was in fact Kevin Rudd who betrayed Julia Rudd and the Labor party by not acting in the parties best interests, by keeping decision making within the narrow confines of the Gang of Four and by not being the Kevin who won them the election and becoming the Kevin who was going to loose them the election.

It is Kevin’s Rudd’s actions that have created this situation and it is Kevin Rudd who could have avoided it all Julia Gillard just did what she felt she had to do.

As you all know Julia Gillard has been voted in as the leader of the Federal Labor Party and as such Australia’s first female Prime Minister.

Kevin Rudd has had his say and Julia has made her first speech as PM.

Kevin Rudd’s speech was one full of emotion with tears seeming to be just below the surface. He outlined his achievements, as expected, thanked the Australian people and the Labor Party for their support during his time as Prime Minister. He also confirmed that he will stand as a candidate in the next election.
Like I said Kevin Rudd’s speech was full of emotion with his family standing behind him in support. At one stage he joked that “What I am less proud of is the fact that I have now blubbered.” Perhaps if had done a bit more blubbering and shown a bit more human emotion he would not be in this position now. It worked for Bob Hawke so it was worth a go.

On to Julia’s speech which of course is quite important for the future of the current Government and an historic moment.
She paid tribute to her parents and the hardworking values that they taught her. It was these hardworking values that were to set the mood for the rest of her speech.

I won’t go through the whole speech here. There are plenty more places where you will be able to read about that.
What I thought were the biggest things to come out of her speech were her wishes to focus on leading a hard working Government focused on providing quality services for the people of Australia. but some of the big changes in direction will come with Julia Gillard “throwing open the Governments doors” to the mining companies to negotiate on the mining tax issue.
Julia will halt the Governments advertising campaign on the mining tax and asked the mining companies to halt theirs as well. Although she would not say it in questioning, she did seem to indicate that everything was negotiable including the previously non-negotiable 40% tax rate. This could be the one thing that makes the biggest difference as it has been the biggest weapon used against them in recent weeks and has done a lot of damage.

Julia did recognise the part she has played in the Rudd Governments shortcomings but also claimed credit for its success.
Of course there was the compulsory tribute to Kevin Rudd.

When asked about the change in her commitment to Kevin Rudd as leader she stated that it had become more and more apparent to her that the government had “lost its way” and she had done what she could as Deputy Leader and it was time for her to move to take the leadership.
Upon being asked whether she would be living in The Lodge Julia Gillard said that should would continue to live in her house in South Australia and her flat in Canberra. Obviously there is no benefit in moving house if you may have to move again in a few months time.

Wayne Swann also spoke but really only echoed what Julia Gillard had said and created a united front for the new Labor leadership.

Tony Abbott has also had his say on the matter saying that despite the change in leadership it makes no difference. It is “the same product different salesman.” He sought to capitalise on Julia Gillard’s line that “the Government had lost its way.” He also tied Julia Gillard straight back to the failings of the Rudd Government saying that she was the “co-author” of its policies along with Kevin Rudd.
It was predictably full of the political spin that you would expect from Tony Abbott.
Highlighting the fact that Julia Gillard was not elected as Prime Minister and he stated his dissappointment that the style of New South Wales Labor had come to Canberra.

One thing That Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard both agreed upon was that they are each there to make sure that the other is not elected as Prime Minister. Well of course they are that is usually how elections work in our system.

Julia Gillard has now been sworn as Prime Minister by the Governor General Quentin Bryce.

While Julia Gillard would not be drawn on when an election would be held she did say that she would be visiting the Governor General soon to ask for an election to be held.

Certainly this election will be interesting.
How will a Gillard Goverment afect the election campaign and its eventual result?
How will Julia Gillard’s leadership change to direction and feel of the Federal Government?

Certainly Julia Gillard has a job to do. She may not have intended to “crash her head through any glass ceilings” but now that she has she will need to justify her acheivement and buckle down to the hard task ahead of leading the Country and leading the Government to the next election.

Julia Gillard is now Australia’s first female Prime Minister.

Julia Gillard and Wayne Swann – Photo from ABC TV

Julia Gillard now has the job of leading the Labor Party into the next election but can she lead them to victory? Only time will tell but one thing is certain her job will not be easy.

Mike Foreshaw announced that Julia Gillard has been elected by the Labor Caucus unopposed after Kevin Rudd stood aside during the Caucus meeting. Indeed there was a lot of pressure on Rudd to stand aside and save himself the embarrassment of a messy leadership vote. Wayne Swann has also been elected as Deputy PM by the Labor Caucus.

Big changes will be needed. Changes to the mining tax. Action on the ETS. Certainly a less a less arrogant leadership style will be required.

With Julia Gillard as PM how will this change the look of Labor’s from bench. Wayne Swann is deputy PM but who else will fill the new cabinet. We will have to see who will take on Treasury and other key ministries. Certainly people the of Julia Gillard’s Cabinet will speak loud about who is behind and where her influences are.

With Julia Gillard now Australia’s first female Prime Minister is this really an important issue or is it more important that the person be right for the job.

I wish Julia the best of luck she will certainly need it.
Now is the time to see what people have to say most of all Julia Gillard.

With about 30 minutes before the Labor Caucus starts its leadership meeting it looks like Julia Gillard has the numbers to win.

With an estimated 66 votes out 115 Julia Gillard looks to be our first female PM.

I can’t help thinking that if Kevin Rudd had listened to other people more instead of blindly pushing on with his own ideas he may not be in this position now.
In what seems to be just another sign of Kevin Rudd’s arrogance I have heard that rather than make calls to Labor MP’s himself, he had staffers make the calls. If any MP’s were having a bit of trouble making up their mind that call just made it so much easier.

Whatever happens we will find out after 9am who will be Prime Minister.

How will this change Labor’s direction and how will it change the upcoming election?

Kevin Rudd has announced that there will be a leadership vote at 9:00am tomorrow morning (Thursday 24th June).

In his recent press conference tonight Kevin Rudd went over what he has achieved in his time so far as Prime Minister, things like the economy, education and apology but says “there is much more to be done.”

When asked questions about whether he felt betrayed or whether he would expect Julia Gillard to stand down as Deputy PM if she lost, Kevin Rudd totally avoided the questions.

According to many news reports and Labor sources Kevin Rudd does not have the numbers to win the leadership vote but said in his press conference that he will be standing against Julia Gillard in an attempt to keep the Prime Ministership. He also said he felt he would win. Is this just positive thinking or is he just fooling himself.

Some Labor members have already come out and publicly said they will be voting for Julia Gillard. Kate Lundy, a Labor Senator for the ACT has said on Twitter “I will be voting for Julia Gillard in the l’ship ballot. She will be an inspiring PM!”

Most importantly for Julia Gillard is that she has the support of the AWU, the union that supported Kevin Rudd to his election win in 2007.
With such powerful support Julia Gillard certainly has the upper hand in tomorrow mornings caucus meeting.

Paul Howes, the National Secretary of the AWU says “Labor’s message had been lost for the last few weeks, and in fact months, under the Prime Minister’s leadership,” he told ABC’s Lateline program.

“We have to look at what’s in the best interests of our members, of our union, to ensure that fairness remains in our members’ workplaces.

“We think that Julia Gillard is the best option to lead Labor to victory at the upcoming election.”

They have clearly positioned themselves behind Julia Gillard which will almost guarantee her a victory tomorrow but of nothing is certain in politics.

The timing to also adds an interesting twist to these events. With Federal Parliament about to break, will this be an advantage for Julia Gillard, allowing her to settle into the Prime Ministers position without the distraction of Parliament Will it just make it harder for her to get the new Labor message, that come with her, out to the people she will be asking to vote for her and her party.

If Julia Gillard wins,will she be able to lead the Labor Party to an unlikely election win? If Kevin Rudd wins I am sure nothing will change and Labor will loose for sure.

With nothing more to be done tonight other than watch the Socceroos play Serbia in the World Cup tonight we will all have to wait until tomorrow morning to see what happens.

Labor Party leaders are locked in talks tonight about Kevin Rudd’s leadership.

In what seems to be a move coming from the Victorian and South Australian Right, powerful party figures have been secretly canvassing numbers for a move to dump the Prime Minister and replace him with his deputy, Julia Gillard.

Haven’t the Labor party learned that leadership spills don’t win elections or are they just desperate to salvage as many votes as they can.

Now for what it is worth, I think Julia Gillard would be a leader, but can she win the election. Only time will tell but it will be a long shot.

I think the one saddest part about Julia Gillard possibly becoming Australia’s first female Prime Minister is that she won’t have been voted in by the people. Just like Kristina Kenneally, the NSW Premier, she will be there for political reasons not democratic ones.

Somehow I can’t help feeling that Labor would be better off getting Kevin Rudd to change some of his more unpopular policies and show that he is willing to listen and represent the people instead of creating the instability that always comes with a leadership spill.

According to a number of sources, much of the support for the spill comes from the AWU, who were instrumental in Labor’s election win in 2007.
Could this union backing along with a Gillard leadership make the difference in the election or will it end up just being a desperate attempt to salvage what Labor can.

As I write this Kevin Rudd is about to hold a press conference so stay tuned this could be interesting.

The New South Wales Labor Government has seen a massive swing against it in today’s Penrith by-election.

The Liberal Party has taken the seat of Penrith, in Sydney’s west, with a resounding swing in what was a safe Labor electorate.
Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres has received a primary vote of 17067 against John Thain, the Labor candidate, 8200 votes.
With such a massive swing against Labor it seems almost certain, if it wasn’t already, that the Labor Government in New South Wales will come to an end in next years State Elections.

In what could add an interesting twist to the in upcoming State Elections, the Greens gained a swing of 7.3% percent, which could see them holding a balance of power with a probable Liberal State Government. I am sure this will be an uncomfortable arrangement for the NSW Liberals.

What can Kristina Keneally pull out of the bag to save her party?
Will the Labor party resign themselves to defeat or will they put up a decent fight? I hope they do but do they have it in them. I just don’t know.

Did you watch the Penrith Twitter debate involving Kristina Keneally, Barry O’Farrell and Lee Rhiannon among others. Well you didn’t miss much.
It was meant to be a chance for the people of Penrith, in Sydney’s west, to ask questions of politicians in the lead up to upcoming by-election in Penrith.

I believe this is the first time a debate like this has been tried on twitter and I hope it is the last. What a waste of bandwidth.
It was confusing, disjointed, crowded, unorganised and without any form at all. Maybe this was the point of using this medium, to allow an uncensored and unmoderated open debate on issues concerning people. Well I don’t think this was achieved.
The reason I think this medium was chosen was perhaps a badly thought out attempt to connect with the people (surely not from NSW politicians) but I really think it was just a lazy way to do a bit of electioneering.

A word of advise to anyone considering doing this again don’t.
It doesn’t work and unless twitter comes up with a better tool for this type of discussion it won’t work. Stick to the good television debate or the bear pit of the NSW Parliament.

Did you watch the Penrith Twitter debate ?
Let us know what you thought. Leave a comment.

Poor Kristina Keneally doesn’t seem to be having much luck lately.
First David Campbell leaves the front bench to deal with personal issues after his secret gay life is exposed and then she looses two more Minsters in one day. What can go wrong next? I know lets just insult the whole of Australia by down playing Barry O’Farrell’s Kokoda trail achievement as something so easy even Miss Australia has done it. Nice work Kristina.

Kristina Keneally made the gibe at Barry O’Farrell saying “Well, so did Miss Australia – so congratulations, Barry.” after he had used his completion of the trail as proof of his personal strength in a media interview.

Clearly Kristina doesn’t fully understand the significance of the Kokoda Trail to Australia. By down playing Barry O’Farrell’s effort she has insulted not only all Australians but the soldiers that that made this trek out of necessity during World War II and people who have completed the Kokoda Trail since then. She has also insulted all Australian women by suggesting that if a women, and more particularly 2007 Miss Australia winner Caroline Pemberton, can complete the trail then I can’t be so hard.

I would suggest that perhaps Kristina needs to do the Kokoda Trail and even though she claims it is something she would like to do when her kids are older I would suggest that the sooner the better. Until then maybe a bit of research about the Kododa Trail and perhaps the broader subject of Australia history would be in order.

Perhaps some research of the people that Barry O’Farrell did the trail with wouldn’t have gone astray either as Caroline Pemberton is an experienced adventure racer and one of his other fellow participants was Liberal Upper House MP Charlie Lynn has completed the trail 59 times, so Barry O’Farrell was not among beginners by any means.

After the shock loss of two Ministers when Ian McDonald and Graham West resigned from their Ministries the Keneally Government was in a state of panic. Not only did it have to fill two more ministries but it will now have to go into damage control again over Ian McDonald’s alleged travel rorts.
The New South Wales Labor Government would seem to have quite a task ahead of them if they are going to have any success in the next state election in March 2011. Kristina Keneally certainly hasn’t made the task any easier and has perhaps shown how out of touch she is with the people who she claims to represent.
I certainly look forward to an interesting election campaign that seems to be developing in New South Wales. I am sure it will provide many interesting points for discussion.